Last year I wrote The future of obesity treatment, arguing one of the only forms of effective treatment left on the table is heavy government intervention, but, maybe that was a ways off, and we could try one or two other avenues first.
Soooo, looks like it might be going the other way-
–Sugary Drink Consumption Plunges in Chile After New Food Law
“Consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks dropped nearly 25 percent in the 18 months after Chile adopted a raft of regulations that included advertising restrictions on unhealthy foods, bold front-of-package warning labels and a ban on junk food in schools.”
If that is true, and that is maintained, it is an astounding change. One I think only governments can make.
“The law is far-reaching. It includes mandatory package redesigns that erased cartoons like Tony the Tiger from sugary cereal boxes, and television advertising restrictions that banished ads for unhealthy products from the airwaves between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. A study published last year by the journal Public Health Nutrition found that Chilean children were subjected to half as many ads for junk food and sugary drinks after the restrictions were put in place.
The regulations followed a 2014 measure that raised the tax on sugary beverages to 18 percent from 13 percent.”
“A centerpiece of the rules is a series of black stop signs that must appear on the front of packaged foods and beverages high in salt, sugar, fat or calories. Experts say the “high in” logos have had an unmistakable impact on the way Chileans shop for groceries. In focus groups, parents have described being reprimanded at the supermarket by their children if they reach for products emblazoned with the stop signs.”
“That’s just Chile” you might think.
” Peru, Uruguay, Israel have adopted Chilean-style front-of-package labels; Brazil and Mexico are expected to finalize similar labels in the coming months, and a dozen other countries are considering them as well.”
It’s kind of like any idea that works really well- it gets copied quickly.
“Those are just small foreign countries” you might think.
“Barry M. Popkin, a University of North Carolina nutritionist who is advising the government”
This is policy being advised on by Americans! One who
“said legislators [in Chile] are considering what he called a “mega tax” on processed foods — the frozen pizza, instant noodles and fast-food meals that are responsible for two-thirds of all calories consumed by children.”
And they’re just getting started.
One argument against this form of regulation goes along the lines of “people should have the freedom to eat whatever they want.” I’m sympathetic to that reasoning, but it just isn’t very solid in this context.
If you examine the article, you’ll notice a lot of the emphasis is on children. The argument then gets flipped, “children should have the freedom to not grow up obese.”
It’s no different than smoking.
“People should have the freedom to smoke if they want.”
But then,
“People should have the freedom to not inhale your second hand smoke”
As well as,
“You have to be a certain age to decide whether you can smoke.”
If you’re thinking “that’s different, smoking can influence those around you.” Well, if more people around you are obese, you don’t think that affects you? If you hang around alcoholics, you don’t think you’re more likely to drink?
Make your own decision as to who is right and your own bet as to who wins.
One reason I bring this up is the business aspect. I find that helps think about these kinds of situations in probabilistic terms, and at the end of the day, that’s what we’re dealing with. There are no guarantees when trying to predict human behavior.
So, for instance, would you buy stock in a sugar only company these days? (Why do you think Coca-Cola has been making such a push for its non-sugar options?)
How about if you’re a personal trainer? What does your business look like if two years from now Americans are, say, consuming 25% less sugar?
Let’s say you’ve made a career out of being a trainer, a nutritionist, or something fitness oriented. Your livelihood depends on it, and you have enormous sunk cost with it due to all the time you’ve put in. Do you dismiss the idea of this happening because you want to avoid cognitive dissonance? Or do you examine the hell out of your scenario, trying to be prepared for this?
If you think there’s only a 50% chance of something like this happening in America, that still means 12.5% less expected sugar consumption. How should you react to that?
Because this isn’t poker. Your chips have to go on the table. Which table do they go on?
Adam
May 25, 2020
The most brilliant thing about those Chilean warning labels is that they are shaped like a stop sign. Seems like an obvious shape choice once you see it. I highly doubt they’d be as effective if a different shape. Even little kids get it.
I’d like to hear you expand a bit on how personal training would look different if American’s suddenly were eating notably less sugar. If I had to pick just one “food related thing” for my clients to reduce, I think it would be restaurants. Three meals out a week doesn’t sound unreasonable on paper until you realize those 3 meals added up to 20% of your calories for the week.
b-reddy
May 26, 2020
But would you have as many clients if people weren’t eating at restaurants as much? (Maybe the pandemic will provide you an experiment!)
If stuff like what is going on in Chile is found to be effective, it’s unlikely to stop there. Like smoking, there is probably going to be a lot of add-ons.
So, what happens if sugar consumption goes down 25%, and possibly calorie consumption too (because we tax / label high density foods or something), and then exercise is upped at x% (because of x, y , z government changes)?
For many, a personal trainer’s job is being done with no personal trainer. So I would make the bet the amount of personal training clients in the world, and likely gym members, goes down. Which means the amount of trainers, and possibly gyms, could go down too.
(I’m not saying this will happen. I’m saying I believe it’s an increasingly likely probability, due to health trends and costs in the country.)
I worked at one gym where the owner had very buttery popcorn made a few days a week, with a movie theater like popcorn maker. You could smell it across the gym. He gave it away for free as members walked out the door. He was a very honest guy.
“What’s up with the popcorn?”
“Job security.”